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Equity research note · Talal Ramadhan Research

Bank of Bahrain and Kuwait B.S.C.

BBK · Bahrain Bourse · Financials, banks · Reporting currency BHD · As of 10 August 2026

A well run domestic bank whose share price no longer rests mainly on its own earnings. The business passes; the price does not.
By Talal RamadhanAs of 10 August 2026Rating: WatchNot investment advice
Current price
BHD 0.560
Bahrain Bourse, 10 August 2026
Fair value range
BHD 0.390 – 0.540
Residual income as a justified price to book, anchor BHD 0.465
Expected return
About +2% a year
Four years to the anchor, dividends included
Watch

Moves to BUY at or below BHD 0.350, or on a binding exchange ratio valuing BBK at 1.9 times book or better with completion conditions met. Objective is income with capital preservation over a three to five year holding period. Allocation band 0 to 2% of a portfolio, set by liquidity rather than by valuation.

Market profile
MetricValueMetricValue
Market capitalisationBHD 1,017m (USD 2.70bn)Price to book, 30 Jun 20261.63x
Shares outstanding1,816.6mBook value per shareBHD 0.3433
Dividend yield, FY2025 paid7.1%Payout ratio, 2025About 90% of earnings
Return on equity12.7%Capital adequacy, 202519%
Non-performing loans, 1Q263.1%Provision coverage, 202596%
Daily turnover, 6m averageUSD 0.1mFree float, exchange register47.83%

Source: BBK results releases for FY2025 and the half year to 30 June 2026 (Tier 1); Bahrain Bourse major shareholders register, 5 November 2025 (Tier 2); SICO Research company update, 7 June 2026 (Tier 3). Price supplied by the analyst and cross-checked against dated closes in the financial press. The Bahraini dinar is pegged to the US dollar.

Price against the published fair value range
Price BHD 0.56
BHD 0.3Fair value BHD 0.39BHD 0.54BHD 0.68
Midpoint
BHD 0.465
Implied
-17.0%

Fair value from a residual income model expressed as a justified price to book multiple, cross-checked against a dividend discount model. Anchor is the midpoint of the range, BHD 0.465. Calculated by the author.

Three reasons to look

  • A merger with NBB would create Bahrain's largest bank. If the ratio marks BBK toward NBB's 2.1 times book, that is worth roughly BHD 0.17 a share against today's price.
  • Asset quality is improving while the bank earns well. Non performing loans fell to 3.1% at the first quarter of 2026 from 4.1%, capital adequacy is 19%, and return on equity runs near 12.7%.
  • The HSBC Bahrain retail book transferred on 30 November 2025. About 75,000 customers, adding low cost current account funding BBK did not have to build.

Three major risks

  • Minority holders do not decide the exchange ratio. State bodies hold 52% of BBK and 49% of NBB, and a ratio set for state reasons need not maximise minority value.
  • Book value is unstable. A BHD 1,269.5m securities book, twice equity, cut comprehensive income to BHD 16.8m in the first half of 2026 against BHD 42.5m of reported profit.
  • The stock turns over about USD 100,000 a day. Exiting a real position takes weeks, and that constrains size more than valuation does.
01

Business overview

BBK is a commercial bank. It takes deposits, lends the money out, and keeps the difference. It was created by Amiri decree on 16 March 1971 and is licensed by the Central Bank of Bahrain as a conventional retail bank. It runs branches in Bahrain, Kuwait and India, representative offices in Dubai and Turkey, and owns CrediMax, which issues credit cards, and Invita, a call centre business. It reports four segments: retail, corporate, international, and investment and treasury. Most of the money is made in Bahrain.

Where the income came from in the first half of 2026
BHD 93.0m
Operating income, six months to 30 June 2026
Net interest incomeBHD 63.3m (68%)
Investment and otherBHD 18.6m (20%)
FeesBHD 11.1m (12%)

Source: BBK results release for the half year ended 30 June 2026, 29 July 2026. Tier 1. Growth against the same period of 2025: interest +7.8%, fees +12.1%, investment and other +66.1%.

The fastest growing line is the least repeatable

Investment and other income grew 66.1% year on year and is a fifth of first half operating income. SICO identifies a BHD 6.8m one-off gain inside the first quarter. A reader comparing headline growth to franchise growth should strip this line out first.

The HSBC retail book

On 30 November 2025 BBK completed the purchase of HSBC's Bahrain retail business: roughly 75,000 customers with their loans, deposits, credit cards and accounts, plus the staff who served them. The Central Bank of Bahrain approved it in July 2025. What BBK paid is undisclosed, so the deal cannot be decomposed into cash to the seller against retained items and is not used anywhere in this valuation. On record: the price was fixed against a 30 June 2024 reference date with adjustments for net asset value changes to completion, and HSBC expected a pre-tax disposal gain of about USD 0.1bn.

The acquisition landed on the balance sheet a month before the year ended. So the 2025 balance sheet is fully enlarged while the 2025 income statement contains only one month of the earnings that go with it. Anyone comparing 2025 loan growth to 2025 profit growth is comparing two different things.

The size of the bank, at 30 June 2026
MetricBHD m
Total assets4,931.8
Customer deposits2,877.6
Net loans2,363.5
Equity to owners623.7

Source: BBK results release for the half year ended 30 June 2026. Tier 1. BBK lends out about 82 fils of every dinar deposited and parks the rest in securities and treasury bills. That surplus is what makes the securities book so large against equity.

02

Industry and competitive position

Bahrain is a small, crowded banking market attached to a pegged currency. The dinar is fixed to the dollar, so the Central Bank of Bahrain follows US rates rather than setting its own: no currency risk for a local holder, and no monetary independence either. The competitive question here is not market share but consolidation. BBK and NBB, the two largest domestic conventional banks, have negotiated a merger since June 2024. If it completes, the map is redrawn rather than adjusted.

How the market prices Bahraini banks, trailing price to book
National Bank of Bahrain2.1x
GFH Financial Group2.0x
BBK1.6x
Al Salam Bank1.5x
Bahrain Islamic Bank0.5x

Source: SICO Research, BBK company update, 7 June 2026, Exhibit 1, trailing twelve month price to book. Tier 3.

A row that argues against this note

BBK sits mid table. On this panel it is cheaper than NBB and GFH, so a reader could reasonably ask how a note can call it expensive. Two answers. First, relative cheapness against NBB is not an argument about BBK's absolute level, and NBB's 2.1 times is precisely the number the merger negotiation exists to arbitrate. Second, the spread from 0.5 times to 2.1 times inside one small market shows this market discriminates hard on return on equity. BBK earns about 12.7%. The multiple it carries implies a good deal more.

What protects the franchise, and what does not

BBK's advantage is distribution and deposits, not products. Fifty five years of branches, salary transfer relationships and government business produce cheap, sticky funding, and the HSBC book strengthened exactly that. What does not protect it is lending itself: corporate credit is a commodity priced off the same dollar curve for every bank in the country, and BBK's margin fell about 11 basis points year on year in the first quarter of 2026, to 2.68%.

BBK against its own recent history
Metric2025 actual2026EAt 0.560 today
Price to earnings12.9x12.1x12.1x trailing
Price to book1.6x1.5x1.63x
Dividend yield7.1%6.2%7.1% on 2025 paid
Return on equity12.7%12.7%12.7%

Source: SICO Research, 7 June 2026, Tier 3, for the 2025 and 2026E columns. Today's column computed by this desk from BBK reported equity and earnings, Tier 1.

03

Financial performance

Net profit to owners, BHD m
53
64
75
72
80
85E
202120222023202420252026E

Source: net profit series 2021 to 2025 and the 2026E column from SICO Research, 7 June 2026, Tier 3; 2024 and 2025 figures confirmed against BBK results releases of 24 February 2026, Tier 1. 2026E is SICO's estimate, not this desk's.

Reported and estimated lines
BHD m unless stated20252026E
Net interest income117.2125.9
Non-interest income43.147.5
Earnings per share, BHD0.0440.047
Dividend per share, BHD0.0400.035
Return on equity12.5%12.7%
Cost to income46%47%

Earnings per share for 2024 were 40 fils against 44 fils in 2025. Lines are shown only where this desk could source them at Tier 1 to Tier 3. 2026E figures are SICO's estimates.

Quality of growth

  • The balance sheet was bought, not grown. Loans rose 31.5% in 2025 and deposits 18.3%. SICO puts underlying loan growth at 28% excluding HSBC, so the acquisition is a part of it rather than the whole. Either way this is not a repeatable rate: SICO models about 3% loan growth in 2026 and 4 to 5% after that.
  • Per share lags the total. Net profit rose 11.1% in 2025 but earnings per share rose 10.0%, from 40 to 44 fils, because the share count edged up. Total profit is the company's figure. Per share is the holder's.
  • The most recent quarter went backwards. First half 2026 profit rose 10.1% to BHD 42.5m, but the second quarter alone fell 6.3% to BHD 16.4m on higher provisions, higher costs and weaker associate results. Provisions for the half rose 31.6% and operating expenses 18.5%, both faster than the 16.6% income growth.
04

Balance sheet, capital and shareholder returns

Capital adequacy, 2025
19%
SICO models 19 to 20% through 2026
Non-performing loans, 1Q26
3.1%
Down from 4.1%, coverage 96%
Payout, 2025 earnings
90%
BHD 72.1m, the largest dividend BBK has paid

The securities book is the balance sheet risk, not the loan book

BBK holds BHD 1,269.5m of investment securities, 26% of assets and roughly twice equity. When those marks move, book value moves with them, and book value is what a bank is valued on. The record shows how much. In 2025 the marks helped: comprehensive income was BHD 102.2m against BHD 80.0m of profit. In the first half of 2026 they hurt: BHD 16.8m against BHD 42.5m, a gap of BHD 25.7m. Equity fell 10.9% in the first quarter to BHD 586.0m, then recovered to BHD 623.7m by June.

Why this matters more here than at most banks

This note values BBK off book value per share. A book value that moves 10% in a quarter for reasons unrelated to lending is a moving anchor, and it is the main reason the margin of safety is 25% rather than something narrower.

Funding and capital

Deposits fund most of the bank. Term borrowings rose 32.2% in 2025 to BHD 405.3m after BBK closed a USD 500m three year club loan. Capital and payout are linked. Paying out 90% of earnings leaves little to fund growth internally, which is why the 2025 expansion was funded with borrowing rather than retained profit. BBK paid 40 fils for 2025, BHD 72.1m and its largest ever, approved on a 95.36% AGM quorum. An interim 7.5 fils was declared on 29 July 2026. SICO models 35 fils for full year 2026, a cut of an eighth.

05

Ownership, control and governance

The decision that will set the value of a BBK share over the next few years is not one BBK's public shareholders get to make.

Who owns BBK, holdings of 5% and above
52.17%
Held by state bodies
Fincorp W.L.L. (unclassified)26.19%
Social Insurance Organization, Pension Fund19.27%
Kuwait Investment Authority19.20%
Social Insurance Organization, GOSI13.70%
All other holders21.64%

Source: Bahrain Bourse major shareholders register for BBK, dated 5 November 2025. Tier 2. Fincorp W.L.L. is the largest single holder and its own ownership could not be established from any primary source, so it is left unclassified. State control is therefore at least 52% and may be higher.

A figure that does not reconcile

SICO states BBK's free float at 54%. The exchange register implies at most 47.83% once the three state holders are excluded, and 21.64% if Fincorp's block is also treated as strategic. The register is the higher tier source, so this note works from 47.83%. The 21.64% figure is the one that matters for daily liquidity.

Who decides the merger

NBB is 49% owned by Mumtalakat, Bahrain's sovereign wealth fund, with 6.24% at the Pension Fund Commission. A Bahraini state body sits on both sides of the negotiation, and Kuwait's sovereign fund holds a fifth of one of them. The exchange ratio decides how much of the combined bank each side receives. It is the largest single driver of what a BBK share is worth, it will be settled between state institutions, and a public minority holder is a price taker on it. This is not an allegation of bad faith. State owners can and do set fair terms. It is a statement about where the decision sits.

A register this concentrated is why the shares barely trade. Four holders account for more than three quarters of the company, and turnover averages about USD 100,000 a day. That is the arithmetic behind the allocation band: the constraint on size comes from the register, not the valuation. Tariq Jaleel AlSaffar chairs the board and Yaser Alsharifi is Group Chief Executive. No published three to five year targets could be sourced, so no delivery scorecard appears.

06

Valuation

Model. Residual income as a justified price to book multiple, cross-checked against a dividend discount model. No free cash flow discount: for a bank, debt is raw material rather than financing, so free cash flow carries no meaning.

Assumptions, and where each comes from
InputUsedDerivation
Risk free rate5.62%CBB 182 day treasury bill, weighted average rate at the 26 July 2026 auction. The two year Government Development Bond issued 11 January 2026 carries 5.50%, so the curve is close to flat here
Cost of equity11.0%BBK's own perpetual carries 8.25%. Common equity ranks below it, so cost of equity must exceed 8.25%. A 2.75 point increment gives 11.0%; sensitivity spans 10.0% to 12.0%
Sustainable return on equity13.0%Between 2025 actual of 12.5% and SICO's 2027E of about 14%
Terminal growth3.5%Long run nominal growth for a pegged, low inflation economy, against SICO's medium term loan growth guide of 4 to 5%
Book value per shareBHD 0.3433BHD 623.7m equity at 30 June 2026 over 1,816.6m shares

Sources: CBB treasury bill and development bond announcements, Tier 2; BBK release 29 July 2026, Tier 1; SICO Research 7 June 2026, Tier 3.

Why no beta, and what replaced it

Published betas for BBK range from 0.06 to 0.51 by provider. A stock turning over USD 100,000 a day produces stale prices, and stale prices bias measured covariance downward, so a low beta here is a measurement artefact rather than evidence of low risk. The observed beta is rejected and replaced by an observable: what BBK actually pays for capital ranking just above common equity. The sensitivity grid spans 10.0% to 12.0% so a reader who disagrees can price it.

Output: justified price to book and value per share
CaseROECost of equityGrowthJustified P/BValue, BHD
Low12.5%11.5%3.5%1.13x0.386
Base13.0%11.0%3.5%1.27x0.435
High13.5%10.0%4.0%1.58x0.543

Justified price to book equals return on equity less growth over cost of equity less growth. Fair value range BHD 0.390 to 0.540; the anchor is the midpoint, BHD 0.465. Margin of safety, preferred entry and expected return are all computed off 0.465 and nothing else.

Cross-check: dividend discount

A methodologically different test. SICO models a 2026 dividend of 35 fils. Discounted at the same 11.0% cost of equity with 3.5% growth, 0.035 over 0.110 less 0.035 gives BHD 0.467, within a fifth of a fil of the anchor. Part of that agreement is mechanical, since both run off the same cost of equity and growth. The disagreement worth noticing is not between the two models but between both of them and the market.

07

Coverage, sensitivity and scenarios

Analyst coverage: thin, one house identified

SICO Research, Long-term Buy, target BHD 0.620, 7 June 2026, analyst Sumaya AlJazeeri. Simply Wall St indicates two analysts cover the name; only one could be identified by name, so no consensus is computed. Two health warnings. The note predates BBK's 29 July half year release, in which second quarter profit fell 6.3%, and a revision search found no later action, so it is printed dated rather than current. And SICO's own disclosure states BBK owns 7.91% of SICO while NBB owns 21.07%: the only house publishing on BBK is part owned by both parties to the merger it is pricing.

Where we differ. SICO's 0.620 target is 1.81 times book. Solving the same formula backwards, it requires a cost of equity near 8.8%, below the 8.25% coupon on BBK's own perpetual plus any premium for ranking behind it. Our 11.0% is the whole gap. The market's 0.560 implies about 9.3%. A reader who thinks a Bahraini bank's equity should cost 3.7 points more than a treasury bill reaches SICO's answer and should buy. This desk does not.

Sensitivity: value per share against cost of equity and growth
Cost of equityg 2.5%g 3.0%g 3.5%g 4.0%g 4.5%
10.0%0.4810.4900.5020.5150.531
10.5%0.4510.4580.4660.4750.486
11.0%0.4240.4290.4350.4410.449
11.5%0.4010.4040.4080.4120.417
12.0%0.3790.3810.3840.3860.389

Return on equity held at 13.0%, book value per share BHD 0.3433. Every cell sits below the 0.560 price. Computed by this desk.

That is the finding

Nowhere in the plausible parameter space does the model reach today's price. Justifying 0.560 needs a cost of equity below about 9.6%, or return on equity durably above 14%, or both.

Bear, base and bull against today's price
Bear · 25% probabilityBHD 0.33 (-41%)
Base · 50% probabilityBHD 0.465 (-17%)
Bull · 25% probabilityBHD 0.652 (+16%)

Vertical marker = current price BHD 0.56

Bear: merger lapses and credit seasons badly, SICO severe case of 5.0% NPLs and 11.7% ROE, cost of equity 12.0%, growth 3.0%. Base: standalone fundamentals reassert. Bull: merger completes and the ratio marks BBK toward NBB's multiple at about 1.9 times book. Probability weighted value is BHD 0.478. Bear case operating assumptions from SICO Research, Tier 3; discount rate, growth and all valuation arithmetic by this desk.

08

Catalysts, risks and invalidation

Dated catalysts inside the forecast window
EventTimingMagnitude
NBB merger: binding terms and exchange ratioNegotiations opened after the 5 May 2026 board review; reported on track for 2026, no formal dateThe gap between BBK's 1.63x book and NBB's 2.1x is about BHD 0.16 a share, roughly 29% of today's price. The largest single item in the note
Interim dividend of 7.5 filsDeclared 29 July 2026, pending approval1.3% of the current price
Third quarter 2026 resultsLate October 2026, on prior years' patternTests whether the second quarter fall was timing or trend. Watch provisions and costs against income
Full year results and final dividendLate February 2027SICO models 35 fils against 40 fils paid for 2025, a cut of an eighth
US rate path, via the dinar pegContinuousBahraini bill rates rose from 5.37% on 21 June to 5.62% on 26 July 2026. SICO assumes cuts and 12bp of margin compression, so direction runs against that

Sources: BBK announcements, Tier 1; CBB auctions, Tier 2; AGBI, Gulf Daily News and SICO Research, Tier 3.

Merger timeline on the record
DateEvent
Jun 2024 to Jan 2026Proposal initiated, Goldman Sachs appointed, memorandum of understanding signed, due diligence begins
2 Feb 2026NBB and BBK appoint McKinsey & Co as joint adviser
26 Apr 2026NBB submits key terms to BBK, including a proposed exchange ratio
5 to 10 May 2026BBK board reviews the proposal, negotiations commence, follow-up disclosure issued

Sources: bourse disclosures reported by AGBI, Reuters via TradingView and Zawya, August 2024 to May 2026. Tier 3. No completion date has been formally proposed; Gulf Daily News reported on 1 April 2026 that completion remained on track for 2026.

Risk register
RiskWhat happensLeading indicator
Exchange ratio set without minority inputState bodies hold 52% of BBK and 49% of NBB. A ratio settled for state reasons need not maximise minority value. Worth up to BHD 0.16 a share either wayBourse disclosures from both banks
Book value swings on securitiesBHD 1,269.5m of securities, about twice equity. Equity fell 10.9% in one quarter then recovered. Book value is the valuation anchorComprehensive income against net profit
Earnings qualityInvestment and other income rose 66.1% and is a fifth of first half operating income. SICO identifies a BHD 6.8m one-off gain in the first quarterNon-interest income mix
Credit seasoningLoans grew 31.5% in 2025, 28% excluding HSBC. Corporate books take two to three years to show losses. SICO's severe case: NPLs 5.0%, ROE 11.7%NPL ratio, cost of risk

Both sides of the argument

The bull case, argued properly. BBK is not a poor business and this is not a short. It has posted its highest ever profit, cut non-performing loans from 4.1% to 3.1%, holds 19% capital adequacy and yields above 7% on what it paid for 2025. It bought a departing international bank's retail deposits, the cheapest funding in banking and the hardest to build. If the merger completes on terms marking BBK toward NBB's multiple, the shares are worth more than they cost today, and the holder is paid well while waiting. A reader who puts higher odds than 25% on that will reach a different rating from the same facts.

The bear case, argued properly. The record profit is flattered. Part of the balance sheet growth was purchased, the fastest growing income line is the least repeatable, one quarter contained a disclosed one-off gain, and the latest quarter fell. Costs and provisions both grow faster than income. Ninety per cent of earnings leaves the company, so growth is funded with borrowed money. Book value, which the valuation rests on, moved 10% in a quarter for reasons unconnected to lending. And the one external opinion comes from a house part owned by both merger parties. If the merger lapses, a holder owns a fully valued bank they cannot sell quickly.

Invalidation

This rating is wrong, and moves to BUY, if a binding exchange ratio values BBK at 1.9 times book or better with completion conditions satisfied, or if the price falls to BHD 0.350. It is also wrong if return on equity sustains above 14% with cost of risk below 0.35%, which would push fair value above 0.55. It is confirmed if the merger lapses and the price drifts toward 0.45.

09

Portfolio fit, entry and the decision

Liquidity sets the size, not valuation

BBK trades about USD 100,000 a day on a six month average. At a fifth of daily volume, already assertive in a market this thin, a USD 200,000 position needs ten sessions to build and ten to exit in normal conditions, and longer around a merger announcement. That is the binding constraint, and it gives an allocation band of 0 to 2% of a portfolio, a property of the instrument rather than advice.

Fair value anchor
BHD 0.465
Midpoint of the published range
Margin of safety
25%
Wider than usual because the anchor itself moves
Preferred entry
BHD 0.350
Today's 0.560 is 60% above it

Margin of safety, and why 25%

Twenty five per cent is wider than a stable business would need. Book value, the anchor, moved 10.9% in one quarter on securities marks. The largest value driver, the exchange ratio, is outside any shareholder's control. And the position cannot be exited quickly if the view is wrong, so the entry price must carry more of the protection. The bear case values the shares at 0.330, a 41% fall, in a stock that cannot be exited quickly. A holder who could not sit through that is holding too much, whatever the band says.

Monitoring plan

  • Bourse disclosures from BBK and NBB, where the exchange ratio arrives first.
  • Quarterly comprehensive income against net profit, where the securities book shows up.
  • Provisions and costs against income.
  • Traded volume, because the allocation band depends on it.
Decision checklist
TestPassEvidence
Business quality and balance sheetYesRecord profit, NPLs 3.1%, ROE near 12.7%, capital adequacy 19%
Governance gives minorities a say on the key decisionNoState bodies hold 52%; the exchange ratio is settled between them
Price below fair value less the margin of safetyNoTrades 60% above the BHD 0.350 preferred entry
Expected return beats the risk free alternativeNoAbout 2% a year against 5.62% on a Bahraini treasury bill
Position can be exited within daysNoAbout USD 100,000 traded a day
The decision: Watch

The bank passes. The price does not, and the one decision that could change that is being made by people the minority shareholder will never meet. Buy it at BHD 0.350, or buy it when a binding exchange ratio values BBK at 1.9 times book or better with the conditions to completion satisfied. Not before.

10

Appendix

Ratings key
RatingDefinition
BuyPrice at or below the fair value midpoint less the margin of safety, with business, balance sheet, governance and valuation all passing.
WatchQuality passes, price does not, or a catalyst must be confirmed first. A WATCH names its trigger: a price, a threshold, or an event that would move it to BUY.
AvoidFails on business quality, balance sheet, governance or valuation, with no realistic path to the required return.

The equivalent house convention is BUY, HOLD, SELL. WATCH replaces HOLD because these notes inform a decision to buy rather than advise an existing position.

Source register
SourceTierAs of
BBK results releases, half year 2026 and full year 2025129 Jul 2026, 24 Feb 2026
BBK announcements on the HSBC Bahrain retail transfer119 Feb, 20 Jul and 30 Nov 2025
Bahrain Bourse, BBK major shareholders register25 Nov 2025
Central Bank of Bahrain, treasury bill auctions and Government Development Bond issue 43211 Jan, 15 Jul and 26 Jul 2026
HSBC Holdings plc, Form 6-K, SEC EDGAR22025
SICO Research, BBK company update, Sumaya AlJazeeri37 Jun 2026
AGBI merger reporting; Reuters via TradingView bourse headlines36 Jan to 10 May 2026
Gulf Daily News, AGM and merger timing; Zawya, NBB merger announcement32 Aug 2024, 1 and 2 Apr 2026
Simply Wall St, analyst coverage count4Retrieved 9 Aug 2026

Tier 4 use is limited to the analyst coverage count, attributed in the text. No Tier 4 figure is used for a price, rating, target or reported result.

Limits of desk research

Five gaps. Fincorp W.L.L. holds the largest single block in BBK at 26.19%, and no Tier 1 to Tier 3 source establishes who owns Fincorp, which means the stated 52.17% state holding is a floor rather than a total. The current price was supplied by the analyst and cross-checked against dated closes in the financial press, because Bahrain Bourse publishes quotes through a script this desk could not read. No published set of three to five year management targets could be sourced. BBK's exposure to Bahrain's domestic minimum top-up tax was not established and is absent from the model. And the consideration paid for the HSBC book is undisclosed, so the deal is described but never used as a valuation reference. Beyond that this is desk research, untested against management or an expert view on how Bahraini bank mergers have set exchange ratios. That last would improve the bull case probability, the weakest estimate here.

Basis of analysis: residual income as a justified price to book multiple, cross-checked against a dividend discount model. Book value per share of BHD 0.3433, from BHD 623.7m of equity to owners at 30 June 2026 over 1,816.6m shares. Cost of equity of 11.0% derived from BBK's own perpetual instrument rather than a published beta. All valuation arithmetic, scenario probabilities and the sensitivity grid are this desk's work. Figures marked E are estimates and, where they are SICO's, are identified as such. The Bahraini dinar is pegged to the US dollar.

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about the subject instrument. No part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed. The analyst holds no position in the subject instrument.

This document is independent research prepared for informational purposes. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation. Figures are drawn from public sources believed reliable as of the date shown and may change without notice. Anyone acting on this material does so at their own risk and should seek their own professional advice.